Stock Trading System

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Thursday, 30 June 2011

Trading With Charts and Technical Analysis Is A Good Way To Go Broke!

Posted on 08:26 by Unknown
Every day, thousands of people decide that they want to "trade stocks and make millions". Unfortunately, there are no shortage of snake oil salesmen willing to encourage them, and sell books, and fancy technical indicator and charting software.

The truth is that if you approach the stock market with a small amount of capital, and expect to get rich quickly, you are setting yourself up for failure:

1. You might gamble a large percentage of your money on one or two risky trades.
2. Pay too much in expenses (commissions, fees, books, software, DVDs, seminars, etc).
3. Use technical analysis and charting.
4. Get involved in futures and options.

The stock market is a fantastic way to make your money grow and work for you, but you can't expect it to triple or quadruple a small stake. Instead, count yourself as a good trader or investor if you can reliably generate between 10 - 20% per year consistently.

Please do not buy into hype about technical analysis and charts. Now, you do need to use technical (i.e. price based) rules for deciding buy and sell points, but these are about managing risk and taking profits from positions determined through fundamental analysis. But, you need to beware of depending on charts and technical indicators to predict when stocks will go up or down.

Most of these technical indicators have been recycled and sold since the 1970's, when computers and calculators were available for the first time. "Trading gurus", who make more money from selling systems than actually trading, found they could create indicators that sometimes gave reliable signals, and then could cherry pick these examples for their sales pages.

Chart patterns and technical indicators are seductive because most people - especially successful professionals from other fields - think in an employee mentality - rather than an entrepreneurial mindset. In other words, they want a consistent paycheck and reliability. They want a boss to give them instructions. In this case, the trading guru gives them a well defined job - buy when this line crosses this, or sell if this chart pattern occurs. They don't want to think for themselves, take risks, and invent their own systems.

This is why many doctors, lawyers, and engineers make lousy traders and business owners.

I never consistently made money with traditional technical analysis. I only became consistently successful when I turned unconventional and developed my Stock Trading Riches system.

The Stock Trading Riches formula is technical, in that it works on price, and it is as easy to apply as a moving average or oscillator. But, it is not trying to predict when to buy or sell a position, or trying to predict the market. It's a tool for managing a position - lightening up when the position has increased and bulking up the position when it is down.

I found the secret to trading a stock is not to jump in and out. The key is to always hold core position and mathematically adjust the number of shares, depending on a formula.
Read More
Posted in Personal Finance, Stock Trading | No comments

Thursday, 23 June 2011

Even Al Qaida is No Match For The Chicago Commodity Pits

Posted on 13:59 by Unknown
The Department of Justice said that an Al Qaida operative used $27 million to trade commodities - and lost $20 million in 8 months. The DOJ filed a lawsuit to recover the money.

This was commodities trading - which makes even the riskiest stocks look like savings bonds.

Commodities fluctuate less than stocks, but commodities contracts are insanely leveraged - which means that, even if you have a winning trading strategy, you can get wiped out by random fluctuations.

For example, with as little as a $500 deposit, you can trade one corn contract. At a recent price of $6.50 1/4 per bushel, one contract has a value of $32,512.50 (6.5025*5000). That means, using the minimum margin, a 1.5% drop in price would wipe you out.

Of course, you could deposit the full amount ($32,512.50) or even the 50% margin allowed in stocks ($16,256.25) but, in practice, nobody does this because corn prices fluctuate a lot less than a stock price.

The experienced traders in Chicago know that individual traders look at charts and, due to heavy margins, have little tolerance for fluctuations against their positions. So, market makers will buy and sell large quantities to make trends choppy, causing little traders to exit at a loss.

Accounts get depleted quickly through getting "chopped" - repeatedly buying high and selling low - "Death by a thousand cuts".

I've been a full time trader, and I've been burned enough by commodities to stick with stocks, where you can get an edge. The only ones who succeed at trading commodities are insiders whose fathers and grandfathers traded in the CME and CBOT pits.
Read More
Posted in Personal Finance | No comments

Friday, 17 June 2011

It's OK To Splurge Once In A While

Posted on 21:46 by Unknown
I did something impulsive on Wednesday.

I took our 2002 Camry for servicing, and they gave me a 2010 rav4 (small suv) for a loaner. My son and I fell in love with it and got my wife to agree to trade the Camry for it - plus we paid maybe $12k (and an extra $1400 to upgrade to leather seats).

We have the car now, but will drop it off on Monday to get the leather seats installed (they will give us another loaner for 2 days).

This rav4 is now only the third car I've owned.

I owned my Celica for 19 years (1990-2009), so part of me feels like I'm wasting money changing the Camry when it's only 9 years old.

But, I justify the purchase for two reasons:

1. We are pretty frugal in general.

2. Life isn't always about saving money. Sometimes, it is nice to actually spend and enjoy your hard-earned money. I feel good when I drive my new car, and enjoy looking at it.
Read More
Posted in Personal Growth | No comments

Wednesday, 8 June 2011

Who Is To Blame For The United State's High Level of National Debt?

Posted on 11:02 by Unknown
There is plenty of blame to go around for our present debt situation:

1. Under Bush, we cut taxes and started 2 wars - and Obama continued this while
adding another 1/2 war (air strikes on Libya). During WWII, the folks at home made sacrifices, such as rationing, etc. that made them feel connected to the war effort. While we no longer need rationing, we should have ended the tax breaks after 911 - when we went to war.

2. The bottom line cause of the financial crisis was Greenspan pumping too much money trying to lessen the effects of the dot com crash. Booms and busts are a natural cycle in capitalism, and we keep trying to use the government to smooth out the down cycles.

3. Finally, we have had historically low interest rates for the last few years. While responsible homeowners locked in low, fixed rate 30 year mortgages, the government is still mostly stuck with short term debt. We should have been issuing less short term bonds and lots of 20, 30, and even 50 year bonds.
Read More
Posted in Government, Politics | No comments

Tuesday, 7 June 2011

Learning About Business by Surfing Around

Posted on 10:34 by Unknown
Sometimes it's fun to explore the internet without any plans - just following links and "googling" interesting phrases.

This morning, I started off reading an article about an American sumo wrestler who set a world record for heaviest finisher of a marathon.

One of the comments was a joke that the sumo guy would cause a shortage in Gold Bond medical powder - in other words, a joke about chafing.

I remember hearing commercials for Gold Bond years ago so, feeling nostalgic, I googled it and went to the Wikipedia site.

From there, I learned that a lot of cool products from the past - like Gold Bond, Icy Hot, Selsun Blue, etc. are made in Chattanooga Tennessee by Chattem, a 100 year old company.

The Chattem Wikipedia entry mentioned that they are a subsidiary of French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis, which sounds very interesting. An old time Chattanooga company owned by a French drugmaker.

It makes me think of the "Beverly Hillbillies"'s Jed Clampett mingling with a French aristocrat. So, I googled the merger.

Turns out that Sanofi bought Chattem in 2009 on December 21 (my brother's birthday). They paid $1.9 billion - offering $93.50/share, which was a 34% premium over the closing price.

From an analysis point of view, it looks like it was a good deal. Chattem is in the top 10 for consumer products in the U.S. (and has a higher profit margin than leaders Johnson & Johnson and Proctor & Gamble), but they don't have much market overseas. Sanofi is losing patent protection from many drugs, and wants the stable earnings from consumer products to make up the lost income. Also, they want a sales network to sell an over-the-counter version of Allegra in the U.S.

So, it was a win-win deal for everyone.

Finally, I saw an interesting article on the Wall Street Journal that 2 French businessmen in Brussels got charged by the SEC for insider trading on the Sanofi-Chattem deal. They found out about the deal before hand, bought options (expiring on Jan 15) on Chattem stock, and sold the options right after the merger was announced for a $4.2 million profit.

So I had a fun and educational "surf session" all because of a Sumo running (actually walking) a marathon :-)
Read More
Posted in Business | No comments

Monday, 6 June 2011

"22,000 Tears" Visa Blunder - Should the U.S. Give Visas Through A Diversity Lottery?

Posted on 11:57 by Unknown
Today, Yahoo had an article about how this year's diversity lottery experienced a computer glitch and awarded 90% of the first 22,000 (out of 50,000 openings) to people who applied in the first couple of days.

These people were elated that they won, and then crushed when the State Department said they will re-run the lottery. Immigration lawyers say they should honor these 22,000 results and randomly award the remaining openings from people who applied later.

I think that, since the government messed up, they should let these 22,000 people have their visas, remove their names from the pool, and re-run the lottery fairly (picking a new 50,000 from the left over pool).

But, like usual, I find the comments on Yahoo to be just as interesting as the articles. In this case, a lot of people think the whole idea of a random lottery to be dumb.

I actually like it and posted my own comment defending it:

Immigration to the United States has been a big factor in us being the world's only super power. In fact, there are some who argue that, going forward, our biggest competitive advantage against China and India is that we welcome immigrants and new ideas.

I think the Visa lottery is a good idea because:

1. It involves a relatively small amount of visas compared to those given out by other programs, that target skilled and/or wealthy immigrants.

2. The visas from those programs end up going to immigrants from just a handful of countries.

In other word, you can't centrally plan creativity and innovation. I think we are richer if we give artists, poets, dreamers, etc. from other countries a shot at 5% of the visas, rather than letting them all go to high tech companies bringing in computer workers and engineers from India, China, etc.


From my comment, please don't get the idea that I don't like computer consultants from India. My point is that they are well-represented. But, it is in the best interests of the U.S. to distribute a small percentage of visas randomly to people from countries that are under-represented from other visa programs, to diversify the pool.

This way, we increase our chances for allowing in someone who ends up contributing to our society, but would never have had a chance competing against skilled workers.
Read More
Posted in Government, Politics | No comments
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • Lichello's AIM System
     I previously mentioned how my trading system is build around constant value investing.  Another system that is based on this technique is ...
  • The Stock Trading Riches Message Board on iHub
    I've created a new message board on iHub to discuss and answer questions about my book, the Stock Trading Riches system, trading and in...
  • Don't Underestimate Small Flows of Passive Income
    Monevator is a motivational blog for armchair investors. It has a good article on Why a little passive income from a side project is worth a...
  • The Value of Good Stock Picking and Rebalancing
    On Wednesday, the Chicago Tribune had an article about how gold and silver prices have declined this year. The article included a graph show...
  • Making Technology Work For You: The Best Day-Trading Software On the Market Today
    This is a guest post by Alexis Bonari An average individual making a foray into online stock trading is faced with a bewildering array of o...
  • New 4-Star Review for "Stock Trading Riches" on Amazon.com
    Zen like but no panacea     This book is a wonderful and simply written explaination of the author's technique of trading that you can...
  • Value of A Small Passive Income Stream
    Monevator is a motivational blog for armchair investors. It has a good article on Why a little passive income from a side project is worth a...
  • The Best New York Investment Isn't From Wall Street
    I read an interesting article in the Chicago Tribune that one of the best investments over the last year is not from Wall Street - but the N...
  • Flooding In My Subdivision
    Yesterday, Chicago got more than a month of rain in a day. Here is a picture of the road into my subdivision.  It was flooded by the lake.
  • Kindle Version of "Stock Trading Riches" Free on Amazon This Week
    The Kindle version of "Stock Trading Riches" is free on Amazon all this week (Monday 5/20 - Friday 5/24). Here is the link: http:...

Categories

  • Billionaires
  • Business
  • celebrities
  • crisis
  • Entrepreneurs
  • FHA
  • Financial Crisis
  • Government
  • Hollywood Bollywood
  • Humor
  • internet marketing
  • Law
  • Marketing
  • Passive Income
  • Personal Finance
  • Personal Growth
  • Politics
  • Real Estate
  • renting
  • Stock Trading
  • Taxes
  • Videos

Blog Archive

  • ►  2013 (13)
    • ►  December (1)
    • ►  November (1)
    • ►  August (1)
    • ►  July (1)
    • ►  June (1)
    • ►  May (1)
    • ►  April (4)
    • ►  March (2)
    • ►  February (1)
  • ►  2012 (33)
    • ►  October (1)
    • ►  September (2)
    • ►  August (2)
    • ►  May (1)
    • ►  April (6)
    • ►  March (9)
    • ►  February (9)
    • ►  January (3)
  • ▼  2011 (76)
    • ►  December (6)
    • ►  November (9)
    • ►  October (3)
    • ►  September (4)
    • ►  August (6)
    • ►  July (7)
    • ▼  June (6)
      • Trading With Charts and Technical Analysis Is A Go...
      • Even Al Qaida is No Match For The Chicago Commodit...
      • It's OK To Splurge Once In A While
      • Who Is To Blame For The United State's High Level ...
      • Learning About Business by Surfing Around
      • "22,000 Tears" Visa Blunder - Should the U.S. Give...
    • ►  May (9)
    • ►  April (12)
    • ►  March (5)
    • ►  February (2)
    • ►  January (7)
  • ►  2010 (132)
    • ►  December (15)
    • ►  November (7)
    • ►  October (8)
    • ►  September (14)
    • ►  August (6)
    • ►  July (13)
    • ►  June (19)
    • ►  May (12)
    • ►  April (8)
    • ►  March (12)
    • ►  February (6)
    • ►  January (12)
  • ►  2009 (197)
    • ►  December (11)
    • ►  November (7)
    • ►  October (8)
    • ►  September (4)
    • ►  August (12)
    • ►  July (25)
    • ►  June (28)
    • ►  May (24)
    • ►  April (22)
    • ►  March (21)
    • ►  February (14)
    • ►  January (21)
  • ►  2008 (49)
    • ►  December (18)
    • ►  November (4)
    • ►  October (16)
    • ►  September (11)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

Unknown
View my complete profile