Books, DVDs, Courses, and Seminars - Use Them Up Before Buying More!

Back in 2008, Marketing expert Ed Rivis had a good post about self-improvement materials. He was looking at internet marketing, but this applies to programs in other fields - including investing, sales, and self-help / motivation.

He cautions against investing in more ebooks, courses, and seminars (including his own) until you have fully studied and implemented everything you can out of your existing materials.

This is very good advice. Most people, including me (and, according to Ed, himself), have been guilty of buying an Ebook and course, but then failing to follow through. We have a lot of info on our hard drives and shelves, but have not really taken advantage of it.

It feels comfortable and safe to go from course to course. They entertain us and make us feel as if we are progressing. However, watching a succession of DVDs doesn't make you an expert house flipper. To do that, you need to stop watching, get out of your comfort zone, and actually flip a house.

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"Stock Trading Riches" Chapters

Here are some of the chapter titles from my book "Stock Trading Riches":

My Simple Trading System

Optional Ideas for Customizing The System

Zen and the Art of Speculation

The Hidden Dangers of Investing Too Conservatively

7 Stock Market Secrets for New Investors

Divorce of A Trader - The Perils of Leverage

Why Stocks Are Better Than Mutual Funds

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Investment Success - Stick to the Basics!

Combining Fundamental and Technical Analysis for Stock Trading

How to Invest in an Era of High-Inflation and a Weak US Dollar

Deflation and Stock Picking

How Markets React to News and Reports

The Problem With Trading From Charts - The Secret Flaw Technical Analysts Never Talk About

Evaluating Trading Systems Critically - Be Wary of the Well-Placed Example

How to Select IPOs That Are Ready To Explode

Stock Market Cap Analysis - Secrets for Building a Diversified Portfolio

6 Unconventional Metrics for Stock Picking

Bonus 2009 Updates

Bonus Awk, Perl, and Excel Scripts

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Don't Be Worried About The Turbulence in The Stock Market

In a wild, see-saw market like we've seen in the last few weeks, it is common for regular people to become worried and confused. In fact, even many professional traders are probably stressed out.

The thing is, there is never any reason to really worry - as long as you don't have to cash out the whole account in the next 5 years and you aren't trading with leverage.

Instead, there are only two things to know: stocks fluctuate, and fluctuations allow you to boost your return by buying low and selling high. When a stock you own goes down, buy some more. If a stock you own goes up, sell into the rise to generate your return.

In fact, buying into declines and selling into rises is the best way to trade - it does not require hindsight, luck, special knowledge or hours of research.

My book stock trading riches gives a complete trading system that follows this strategy. It also provides information on portfolio building, diversification, and choosing stocks and funds.

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The Threat Right Now is Deflation - Not Inflation!

Too many people are preaching a gloom / doom scenario where the Chinese (and others) reject U.S. bonds because of the debt, we have to raise interest rates, and suffer hyperinflation.

That is just a fantasy at this point.

Since the "downgrade", investors have been piling into treasuries - S&P's view was completely rejected. U.S. bonds are still considered the safest and most liquid investment. There are no other options. Swiss bonds are considered safe, but their market is not nearly large enough.

Right now, we are more in danger of deflation than inflation. There is currently a liquidity trap. Companies are awash in money, but not spending. So there is no demand.

Proof: Bank of New York just started charging negative interest on large cash deposits. Any return the bank can get by investing its balances in overnight / short term paper can't even cover the insurance / overhead of holding deposits!

Even though everyone wants the debt burden eased and don't want any more government stimulus, that might end up being the only course of action. The Fed can't cut interest rates any further. Companies have money, but there is not enough demand for goods/services. Cutting government spending right now will reduce demand. The time to reduce the deficit by spending cuts will be after the economy recovers out of recession.

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The S&P Downgrade of U.S. Debt is Over-hyped

The news media has been making a big deal about the S&P downgrade:

1. The republican candidates are trying to take advantage of it.

2. Yesterday's stock market decline was blamed on the downgrade.

3. CNN had a psychologist on about how people's esteem would be affected.

4. Someone on TV said in 20 years, we will ask "where were you when the U.S. was downgraded?"

The truth, as Paul Krugman has stated on his blog, is that a tarnished ratings firm was quick to downgrade the U.S. - possibly for political reasons, since they botched the numbers.

The downgrade isn't justified because AAA rated countries like France have more debt per GDP and, because borrowing costs are so low, the U.S, could take on another $1 trillion of debt and future debt servicing cost growth would be negligible (0.07% GDP).

On Monday, the market rejected the downgrade because treasury bonds went up. No matter what S&P says, the world knows that U.S. treasuries are the safest and most liquid investment.

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Unions Alone Aren't To Blame For The Fiscal Mess of Our Cities and States

I read an article yesterday about Central Falls, Rhode Island filing for bankruptcy.

A lot of the comments were blaming the unions, and how they have unsustainable benefits and pensions.

I made a comment that the issue can't be entirely blamed on the unions:

To be fair, unions aren't the sole cause of the fiscal problems happening in our cities and states. In many cases, the contracts signed decades ago would have been affordable if the politicians had made the required contributions when they were due, so the amounts would have compounded. (For investment success, "time in the markets" is more important than "timing the markets".)

Instead, they skipped payments and used the money for other entitlements to buy votes. Then, they turned over management of the funds to the investment managers with the best political connections, and let them take investment risks to make up for the missing or late contributions. Instead, this resulted in investment losses and under-performing the markets. Anyone remember the rare coin investing fiasco from Ohio?

Here in Illinois, the lawmakers not only didn't make required contributions, but they kept changing the pension formulas - against the advice of their own actuaries. Now we have a big unfunded pension liability.

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